Secretariat takes a tumble from third down to fifth in its second weekend or release, cementing it as a box office under-performer. With Secretariat hovering in the sixties on Metacritic and Rotten Tomatoes it would need to be a popular favorite to make the Best Picture cut. Seabiscuit made around 120 million in 2003. Secretariat will probably make a modest profit on its 35 million budget, which likely falls under the heading of not good enough. Of course, if voters love it they vote for it, period. But history has shown they're reluctant to vote for films perceived as duds.
In the space of a week Secretariat went from big time contender to a long shot, with Diane Lane going from Annette Bening's main competition to dark horse for a nomination. (Good news for Jennifer Lawrence) The buzz giveth and the buzz taketh away. If it doesn't make it film writers everywhere will mourn the loss of untold hundreds of horse racing/Oscar race puns.
Ebert in support for the film. It stands on the precipice of rotten status at Rotten Tomatoes with a 60% which I believe would be an all time low for a Picture nomination (correct me if I'm wrong but Blind Side's 66% is where the bar is currently set) It's got its work cut out for it but If anyone can make it happen its Clint.
The Social Network is still has the lion's share of the heat now that it erased its bizarre perception as a box office weakling. The charge was ridiculous on the face of it, but it might have stuck had the film not shown such great staying power at the box office. It's also shaken off sexism charges with no discernible damage to its momentum, so it looks locked and loaded to go all the way to the big show as a genuine contender for some major awards. Network's rising tide has also raised it's fortuned in other races besides Picture. Sorkin is now way out in front of the pack as the favorite to win Adapted Screenplay and Eisenberg is looking like even money to break into the top five, especially since he has all the acting buzz to himself since none of the supporting actors are breaking out of the pack. Some people, ahem, saw this coming a while ago.