Category Close Up: Art Direction

PREDICTION

Inception - With so many original locations, realistic and fantastical, on display this is a strong contender for the win. Personally, I'd nominate this just on the strength of that one narrow alleyway Leo barely escapes.

True Grit - Strong period work infused with an extra helping of idiosyncratic detail by the Coens and Production Designer Jess Gonchor. The funeral parlor, the back of the Chinese store, the courtroom. Probably the leading contender along with Inception.
The King's Speech - Unless of course voters go for the very traditional work on display here. Royalty always goes over big here as do World War II era pieces. Hard to imagine it missing.

Shutter Island - Here's the one place where I don't think Scorsese's potboiler can be denied. The movie is just one fantastic set after another. Eight-time nominee Dante Ferretti is the master of ornate opulence and he's given free rein here to skirt the edges of realism with his sets. You can accuse the whole production of going over the top but there's no denying the strikingly beauty of the production design. Bonus points for that stunning World War II flashback scene.

Alice in Wonderland - Personally, I found the whole thing strangely drab and ugly looking, as if Wonderland had been crossed with war-torn Bosnia. But it's a huge hit with in-your-face visuals, so I've resigned myself to it getting a nod here. Plus Burton's films have won this category three times before so its not smart to bet against this.

CONTENDERS

Black Swan - Too modern and too subtle for Oscar which likes it's art direction nominees either historical or sci-fi/fantasy. The closest they've come to honoring a realistic modern-day film in the last decade is The Dark Knight. The actual Swan Lake scenes might give it edge but it likely won't be enough. Pity. I love all the quietly creepy touches designer Therese DePrez layer in, not to mention Natalie's pretty pink bedroom complete with unsettling row of stuffed animals.

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows- Potter flicks have been nominated in this category twice, for the first and fourth films. Deathly Hallows got a nod from the art director's guild, so it could easily swipe the magical fantasy slot away from Alice. Look out for this one.

Get Low - If they want to vote for a straight forward traditional choice they have The King's Speech. Solid work but nothing that makes you sit up and go "Wow!" A long shot.
Tron Legacy - This branch has never held bad reviews or weak box office against a good looking film in the past, nominating the likes of Nine and The Golden Compass. This slick updating of the 80's cult classic is probably a stronger contender than it seems.

Robin Hood - Would likely be a strong contender if the movie wasn't such a dud, but it did grab a guild nomination (to be clear -there were fifteen nominees) and it could be a nomination morning shocker. Still, if Ridley's Kingdom of Heaven couldn't manage a mention this won't either.
Chronicles of Narnia: Voyage of the Dawn Treader - Strictly speaking, it's not out of the question, but if the first hugely popular Narnia film couldn't grab a nod, this already forgotten box-office flop isn't going to do the trick.

WORTHY WITHOUT BUZZ

Scott Pilgrim Vs. the World - If the art direction branch rarely recognizes realistic or modern film than modern comedies are rarer still. I think Birdcage is the last one depending on if you count Amelie as fantasy. It'll be too bad if Scott Pilgrim doesn't get a second look since it's video game-addled visuals are a constant treat and as original a production as you'll find in this category.

The Illusionist - A pet peeve of mine is the way animated films are excluded from this category despite having some of the most memorable visuals in film history. (Beauty and the Beast is the most beautifully designed film in the last quarter century. Discuss.) On that note The Illusionist's melancholy take on Paris deserves consideration. That sad boarding house for washed up entertainers was one of the memorable movie locations of 2010.
The Social Network / The Ghost Writer - I've lumped these together to avoid repeating myself. Realistic films set in the present day simply don't get nominated no matter how carefully the look has been controlled to create mood, reinforce themes and further the story. In fairness, I wouldn't have room for them on my ballot either, but they deserve to be part of the discussion, at least.

IF I HAD A BALLOT

Other Category Close Ups
Lead Actor
Lead Actress
Cinematography
Score
Supporting Actress
Supporting Actor