Category Close Up: Cinematography

PREDICTION

Black Swan - On first viewing I thought this was going to be a tough get. Cinematographer Matthew Libatique has been ignored for great work before (The Fountain, Requiem for a Dream) but Black Swan's runaway success and showy visuals will make him too tough to leave out this time.

True Grit - The consistently brilliant Roger Deakins can go toe-to-toe with Peter O'Toole for the title of most overdue man in Hollywood. True Grit will likely mark his ninth nomination without a win despite lensing the unforgettable visuals in such films as The Shawshank Redemption, Fargo, and The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford. I don't think there is another name I'd be happier to hear read on Oscar night.

Inception - Wally Pfister does his usual fantastic work collaborating with Christopher Nolan helping to craft a number of images that are already justly famous. There's a case to be made he should have won this category in 2007 for The Prestige. A win this year is going to be tough to come by with this competition but the nomination looks like a lock.
The Social Network - I was relieved to see the perfectly-pitched work by Jeff Cronenweth get recognized by the Cinematographer's Guild reducing the chances it will slip through the cracks like the similarly edgy photography of Collateral. It could still get muscled out by showier contenders but I think Social Network's high profile gets it on the ballot.
127 Hours - The shakiest of my predictions since 127 Hours has a lost a lot of momentum since its release, but I still think the film foregrounds its craft so much that it will be hard to ignore in these categories.

CONTENDERS

Shutter Island- Robert Richardson is a legend in the field with two trophies and six nominations to his credit including last year's Inglorious Basterds. His work on Shutter Island is showy as all get out so I could easily see him knocking out one of the top five, but my prediction is that there just isn't room.

The King's Speech- Don't feel right leaving this out and it's got the guild nom, but I've got seven major contenders for five spots and somebody's got to be left standing when the music stops
The Way Back - The film has a very low profile but Cinematography throws in the occasional wild card and Russell Boyd won this category on his last collaboration with Peter Weir, Master and Commander, so he can't be counted out.
The Town - Cinematography nominees tend to go to the fantastical and awe-inspiring, so it's hard to get nominated for lighting mundane living rooms and city blocks. Still, There Will Be Blood winner Robert Elswit give The Town a distinctive monochromatic, gritty look and could be a surprise inclusion. Huge long shot though.
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Say what you will about the Potter films but they always look great and have been nominated in this category twice previously. Seems like a tall order this year though.

Biutiful - Again, sometimes cinematography digs deep - see nominations for such unexpected choices as Shanghai Triad and Malena. Typically beautiful work from Rodrigo Prieto helps, but this would be a shocker.

Never Let Me Go - Same goes for atmospheric work on this film by Adam Kimmel. Can't count it out completely but I wouldn't bet any cash on it.

WORTHY WITHOUT BUZZ

Somewhere/Greenberg - Lots of cinematographers can make palaces and vistas look amazing but how about someone who brings out the other-worldly qualities of urban Los Angeles? That's what Harris Savides did in 2010 with this one-two punch. His ethereal sun-drenched camerawork is as much a part of the storytelling as the scripts. Between this work and equally fantastic work in Zodiac and Milk it's shameful that Savides is likely to remain waiting for nomination number one after this year.

The Ghost Writer - Instead of going for cheap thrills Polanski relied on cinematographer Pawel Edelman to give the film a mood of slowly encroaching dread with its overcast skies and dim empty spaces. Beautifully executed work.
I Am Love - Work this grand doesn't come along every year. Sweeping a quiet drama up in a tornado of unbridled passion Yorick Le Saux's imagery demands a nomination that I'm confident it won't get. 

The American - I really didn't go for this movie at all but that was no fault of the visuals. On the contrary - What little tension the film was able to muster can be credited to the foreboding mood of Martin Ruhe's photography.

IF I HAD A BALLOT

Other Category Close Ups

Lead Actor

Lead Actress

Art Direction

Score

Supporting Actress

Supporting Actor