Jennifer Lawrence's performance in Silver Linings Playbook emerged from the festival as the prohibitive favorite for the trophy, and now, searching the rest of the field I don't see a legitimate threat to her. More than that, I don't see another lady who is a safe bet to be nominated. Cotillard and Knightely look strong but Cotillard's film is small and foreign while Knightley's film is proving very divisive, as is the actress herself. Gerwig should be in contention but given the scale of the film she will be fortunate to break into the top five.
And after that who is there? Quvenzhane Wallis? Still not buying that voters will go for such a little girl, regardless of her frighteningly strong presence. Emmanuelle Riva from Amour? Same problems as Cotillard plus the added drawback of being a difficult sit. Then who? Streisand? Hunt? Leslie Mann? I'm asking.
The year this reminds me strongest of is 2006 when Helen Mirren got out to an early lead with The Queen and proceeded to bulldoze the competition straight through the Winter. I'm getting that vibe from 2012.
Best Actress Oscar Page
Mirren also had the added advantage of playing the queen, but I'm right there with you. Unless critics rally behind someone like Gerwig (or an unseen performance, but is there any left?) I don't see this going any other way. Lawrence can take it home.
ReplyDeleteI'm wondering why some people think Mary Elizabeth Winstead is a shoo-in for a nomination and some don't even mention her. Not that she's a threat for the win, but just wondering.
About Gerwig though, is her film going to be released this year for sure? I thought it still didn't have a distributor.