Oct 15th Update - 12 Years a Slave - Best Picture frontrunner + eye-catching historical costumes = nomination.
Elsewhere, Hunger Games is making an other play at a nod for its outlandish costumes, and probably has a better shot this year with somewhat thinner competition. As for Rush and Lone Ranger their underwhelming box office keeps them off the list of strong contenders but if voters don't go for the late-breaking contenders voters might give them a second look.
And even with the Gravity entering the race with a big base of support, I'd be surprised if two space suits and some astronaut undies can break into this category, no matter how popular the film.
Still Waiting: American Hustle, The Wolf of Wall Street, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
12 Years a Slave
The Great Gatsby
Inside Llewyn Davis
Saving Mr. Banks
Hunger Games: Catching Fire
The Lone Ranger