May 18 Update - Cannes confirms what we all suspected. The Coens have done it again.
No Locks Yet
The Coen Brothers - Inside Llewyn Davis
They've gone from gonzo outsiders to directing icons. This only misses if it's too small and artsy for them (A Serious Man didn't get a directing nod to go with its picture nod) or if the competition is too strong (a real possibility this year)
Ryan Coogler - Fruitvale Station
Fruitvale is his first film, but the Oscars often saves a spot for the breakout talent of the year. Just look at Benh Zeitlin last year.
Asghar Farhadi - The Past
They ignored him when he created a world class masterpiece with A Separation. If he's done it again, they can't ignore him twice can they? Oh they can? Crap.
Richard Linklater - Before Midnight
He's been at the forefront of the indie world for ages and the Before Trilogy is clearly a crowning achievement. Noah Baumbach - Frances Ha
Like Richard Linklater, Baumbach has been turning out acclaimed films since the mid-90's. Frances Ha is a career best, but is likely too small and idiosyncratic for even the director's branch. Especially with no shortage of indie competition. Full Review
Shane Carruth - Upstream Color
He doesn't have a prayer but I want to live in a world where making a film as accomplished as Upstream Color places you in the awards conversation so that's where I'm putting him.
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