May 18 Update - Cannes has added three serious contenders to this chart and there only half over.
No Locks Yet
Inside Llewyn Davis
With A Serious Man and True Grit the Coen brothers haven't missed since the Academy expanded the category, and now they're going for the hat trick. Word from Cannes is they've done it again. Anybody want to bet against them?
Fruitvale Station
A Sundance favorite poised for a big breakout. Expect the critics to get behind this one over the Summer. 
The Past
If Farhadi has created another film near as good as A Separation (and word from Cannes is he has) then it will definitely be in the hunt. But then even that film (tragically) couldn't make it out of the foreign film category.
Before Midnight
The second part of this trilogy landed a Screenplay nomination. The reputation of the series has only grown in the intervening year, and this one is said to be as good as the amazing first two films in the series.
Frances Ha
Noah Baumbach's outdone himself with this gorgeous black and white tribute to being young and adrift in modern Manhattan. Critics love it but it will probably end up more Indie Spirits than Oscars. Full Review
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